Growing to Non-Growing Church Ratio
In 2005 we saw the first signs of reversal in another disturbing trend. From 1998-2005, the percentage of churches reporting no growth or losses grew. In other words, it wasn’t just that total church membership was growing far more slowly leading up to 2002. Increasingly, individual churches themselves were simply not growing, or were losing members, well before 2002.
In 2005, for the first year since 1998, an increasing percentage of churches reported growing. There was another slight increase in churches reporting growth in 2006. But in 2007 we see a definite increase in both the overall number and percentage of churches reporting year-on-year growth.
This ratio of growing to non-growing churches is perhaps more helpful to understanding what is really happening in the church in terms of growth than is the overall growth rate itself. The growing to non-growing church ratio is something of a leading indicator of future overall growth or decline, since a few large, fast-growing churches can mask underlying declines in a greater number of small, newly planted, or struggling older congregations—but only for a time.
Taken together with the above analysis of our changing rates of growth, there is little doubt that the trend leading up to the events of 2003 had been in place for many years. Just as the steady increase in the ratio of declining churches was the handwriting on the wall of an imminent overall decline, the current clear increase in this ratio indicates a broadening base of healthy churches.
Despite an overall estimated increase in 2007 membership, the survey shows that a majority of churches still are either not growing or are losing members.
Besides the obvious solution of strengthening stagnant or declining churches, the best long-term strategy for maintaining a positive growing to non-growing church ratio is aggressive new church planting: young, small churches consistently grow more than older, larger churches. (See Natural Church Development: "Thus, we can conclude that the evangelistic effectiveness of minichurches is statistically 1,600 percent greater than that of megachurches!")
Next, Part 4: The Task Ahead
4 comments:
hey Kelcy,
I don't think there's a vast conspiracy or anything. I believe it's hard to get data for some churches (especially Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc.)
Still, I don't know where 18,489 for the Asia/Pacific comes from. Assuming 7 for Fiji (which didn't report) the total is 17,373. DToday's church directory has seven fewer churches and totals slightly higher.
Is your survey page incomplete? Just asking, not accusing or jeering.
Hello, I wonder what's the membership for the San Francisco Church of Christ. Thanks.
Hi John,
Happy to answer. The survey page is incomplete in one sense, and there are some differences between what I post to the survey page and the DT directory.
First MM (17,339) and Final report (18,489) difference:
The main difference is the 1,135 members in underground churches in four countries in Asia. Two thirds of these are in one country.
In two of these four countries, Muslim-dominated governments have made official church registration not possible for our churches.
I estimated 15 for Fiji in the 2007 estimated portion.
So here's how to reconcile the numbers between MM and the reported A/P number:
17,339+15+1,135=18,489
Now the DT/MM difference:
For one of these countries, Vietnam, the church leaders there requested they be publicly listed on the church directory. I did not update the Mission Memo list to reflect this. There are 101 members in our two churches there.
On MM I listed 6 for Piya in Myanmar, 4 for Bhuj in India and 5 for Rawalpindi in Pakistan, but have not yet added these new churches to the DT directory.
DT lists Fiji's 2006 membership of 33, which is not included in the MM list.
Two churches, Guam and Saipan, are listed under Asia-Pacific on the DT directory but counted as U.S. churches in the report. Their combined end-2007 membership is 79.
So here's how to reconcile the numbers between MM and DT:
17,339+101-6-4-5+33+79=17,537
Now from DT to the report:
17,537+(6+4+5)+(1,135-101)-79-(33-15)=18,489
I know that's a lotta numbers to throw out there. Hope it clears things up.
Hi Youngme,
I used 1,800. It's on the MM page that shows all the individual church numbers, and I've also updated the DT church directory page to show it there, too.
It's an estimate from a current member, but I think it's reasonably close.
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